Avista native-load forecast (energy and peak)

• 2021 Electric Integrated Resource Plan finalfiled with the Washington UTC (docket UE-200301) and the Idaho PUC on this date; PDF creation date 2021-03-25· WUTC UE-200301
  2021-04-01Document ↗
• 2023 Electric Integrated Resource Plan finalfiled with the Washington UTC (docket UE-200301) and the Idaho PUC on this date; PDF creation date 2023-05-24· WUTC UE-200301
  2023-06-01Document ↗
• Draft 2025 Electric Integrated Resource Plan draftcover date October 1, 2024; filed in WUTC docket UE-230793 on 2024-10-01· WUTC UE-230793
  2024-10-01Document ↗
• 2025 Electric Integrated Resource Plan finalfiled with the Washington UTC (docket UE-230793) on this date and with the Idaho PUC; PDF creation date 2024-12-19· WUTC UE-230793
  2024-12-302025 Electric IRP Appendix G, load-forecast-and-scenarios.xlsx ↗·2025 Electric Integrated Resource Plan ↗

Basis change 2021-04-01 → 2023-06-01: "summer peak of native load, July, at planning temperature (1-in-2)" became "summer peak of native load at the issuer's planning temperature; the table names no month".

Basis change 2023-06-01 → 2024-10-01: "summer peak of native load at the issuer's planning temperature; the table names no month" became "summer peak of native load, August, at the warmest average August day (1-in-2)".

Basis change 2021-04-01 → 2023-06-01: "winter peak of native load, January, at planning temperature (1-in-2)" became "winter peak of native load at the issuer's planning temperature; the table names no month".

Basis change 2023-06-01 → 2024-10-01: "winter peak of native load at the issuer's planning temperature; the table names no month" became "winter peak of native load, January, at the average coldest January day (1-in-2)".

Each entry is on its own stated basis. A difference appears only where the entry is comparable; one that is not comparable carries the reason and no difference.

• 2021 Summer peak · reportedAvista's all-time peak load during the June 2021 heat dome (average temperature 93 F, high of 109 F, against a planning temperature of 84 F) Not comparable: the 2021 vintage's summer figure is a July monthly peak at planning temperature; this outcome is the seasonal maximum, which fell in June; no difference is computed Recorded because it is the issuer's own statement of an outcome in the first forecast year of the 2021 vintage; 2021 is not a ledger target year, so it stands beside the ledger, not against a row.
  1,889 MWSource ↗
• 2024 Winter peak · reportedJanuary 2024 peak load of native load corrected for the curtailed industrial load, as the issuer states it (its historical peak series is 'corrected for known curtailed load or demand response', footnote 38) against the 2021-04-01 edition (1,729 MW): +252 MW; against the 2023-06-01 edition (1,728 MW): +253 MW. A difference carries weather as well as forecast error. Two issuer figures for one event: the official peak (1,869 MW) and the curtailment-corrected peak (1,981 MW). Both are kept; neither is chosen.
  1,981 MWSource ↗
• 2024 Winter peak · reportedofficial January 2024 peak load of native load, after industrial curtailment (Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend cold event) against the 2021-04-01 edition (1,729 MW): +140 MW; against the 2023-06-01 edition (1,728 MW): +141 MW. A difference carries weather as well as forecast error. The issuer states the event 'would have been Avista's all-time peak ... at a load of 1,981 MW, but industrial loads were curtailed resulting in an official peak load of 1,869 MW'.
  1,869 MWSource ↗
• 2024 Annual energy · reportedEIA-930 reported demand of balancing authority AVA over calendar 2024 (UTC): the mean over 8,777 of the year's 8,784 hours; the 7 reported hours EIA marked by publishing its own imputed value are left out, never substituted Not comparable: The issuer excludes 'other loads within the transmission balancing authority published in FERC or EIA data' from its native load (2025 IRP, PDF page 110); EIA-930 demand for the AVA balancing authority includes them. The observed value is published on its own basis and no difference is computed.
  1,474 MWapudl-930-operations
• 2025 Annual energy · reportedEIA-930 reported demand of balancing authority AVA over calendar 2025 (UTC): the mean over 8,757 of the year's 8,760 hours; the 3 reported hours EIA marked by publishing its own imputed value are left out, never substituted Not comparable: The issuer excludes 'other loads within the transmission balancing authority published in FERC or EIA data' from its native load (2025 IRP, PDF page 110); EIA-930 demand for the AVA balancing authority includes them. The observed value is published on its own basis and no difference is computed.
  1,487 MWapudl-930-operations
• 2024 Annual energy · reportedEIA-861 retail sales to ultimate customers of utility 20169 summed over states ID, MT, WA and customer classes for calendar 2024, divided by the year's 8784 hours; its delivery-only rows, energy other suppliers sold over its wires, are left out Not comparable: EIA-861 retail sales are metered at the customer and exclude losses; native load is measured at the system and includes them (the 2025 IRP workbook forecasts retail sales as a separate series, on which a future comparison can stand once a forecast year is observed). Published on its own basis; no difference is computed.
  1,072 MWapudl-retail-sales

• 2021-04-01 final · high growth Higher service-area employment growth (1.90%/yr) and population growth (1.20%/yr) than the Expected Case (1.00%, 0.80%); energy shown as a chart (Figure 3.13) and peak as 1-in-20 bounds (Figure 3.22); no value by year is printed
  chart only
• 2021-04-01 final · low growth Lower service-area employment growth (0.40%/yr) and population growth (0.50%/yr) than the Expected Case; chart only, no value by year is printed
  chart only
• 2023-06-01 final · high ev adoption Charts only (Figures 2.26-2.28)
  chart only
• 2023-06-01 final · high growth U.S. GDP growth 2.4%/yr and service-area population growth 1.1%/yr against the Expected Case's 1.8% and 0.8% (Table 2.5); average annual native-load growth 2023-2045 of 1.11% against 0.85% expected (Table 2.6); energy shown as a chart (Figure 2.19), no value by year is printed
  chart only
• 2023-06-01 final · low growth U.S. GDP growth 1.2%/yr and population growth 0.3%/yr (Table 2.5); average annual native-load growth 0.53% (Table 2.6); chart only
  chart only
• 2023-06-01 final · transformative Charts only (Figures 2.29-2.31)
  chart only
• 2023-06-01 final · wa full building electrification Compared with the Expected Case in energy and winter peak as charts (Figures 2.20-2.22); no value by year is printed
  chart only
• 2023-06-01 final · wa hybrid building electrification Charts only (Figures 2.23-2.25)
  chart only